๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฆ๐ฐ๐ต๐ผ๐ผ๐น ๐๐น๐ผ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐; ๐ถ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ง ๐๐ผ ๐ฏ๐น๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ?
I knowโฆโฆ. You might be thinkingโฆโฆ โdidnโt they recently post something saying โitโs not all about VATโ.
Association For Families Of Independent Schooling (AFIS) C.I.C. has been trying to meaningfully analyse data on independent school closures over the past 12 months.
We wanted to understand to what extent the addition of VAT on school fees is to blame and, most importantly, what the impact has been on children, families, and staff.
๐ช๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐บ๐๐ฟ๐ธ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ๐
๐ถ๐ป๐ด. ๐ฆ๐ผ ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ผ ๐ฐโ๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ถ๐ฟ ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐น๐๐๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ถ๐.*
Hereโs their assessment, at the start of todayโs radio show:
https://lnkd.in/eVqgt6fU
There is a lot of chatter and data flying around. Social media, in particular, is awash with angry voices, contradictory data and opposing claims on both sides of the debate.
๐๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ฏ 100 ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ช๐ท๐ข๐ต๐ฆ ๐ด๐ค๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ด ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ค๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ค๐ญ๐ฐ๐ด๐ฆ โ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ง๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ดโโ
(๐๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต, 4 ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ถ๐ข๐ณ๐บ 2026)
I was struck by a comment last year from Mark Taylor, of the ISC, who described the โtriple whammyโ facing schools:
โข VAT on fees
โข changes to business rates
โข rises in employer National Insurance contributions,
all hitting at once.
A more recent analysis in School Management Plus states that the number of closures is in line with previous years. The article is helpful in explaining its data-gathering methodology and constraints, and it looks at the types of schools that have closed (though it does not provide comparative analysis by school type).
Unsurprisingly, the reality is complex, not black and white.
In isolation, quoting headline numbers of school closures, and assuming they are all due to VAT, is not especially helpful.
Whatโs needed is better data and more careful analysis before conclusions are reached and judgements made.
For example:
โข How many pupils and teachers from these closed schools have been negatively impacted?
โข What types of schools are closing โ and what types are opening (e.g. SEND schools)?
โข How has the data been compiled?
โข How have mergers and acquisitions been accounted for?
These questions remain unanswered, but look out for the results of our recent poll of AFIS parent members, asking what the impact of VAT has been on them.
The debate goes onโฆโฆ..
*NB: Our question is firmly apolitical on VAT. We are simply asking whether the evidence cited supports the claims being made.
