𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗦𝗰𝗵𝗼𝗼𝗹 𝗖𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀; 𝗶𝘀 𝗩𝗔𝗧 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗹𝗮𝗺𝗲?

I know……. You might be thinking…… “didn’t they recently post something saying “it’s not all about VAT”.

Association For Families Of Independent Schooling (AFIS) C.I.C. has been trying to meaningfully analyse data on independent school closures over the past 12 months.

We wanted to understand to what extent the addition of VAT on school fees is to blame and, most importantly, what the impact has been on children, families, and staff.

𝗪𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝗿𝗸𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘅𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗦𝗼 𝘄𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗕𝗕𝗖 𝗥𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗼 𝟰’𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗿 𝗟𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗲𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝘁.*

Here’s their assessment, at the start of today’s radio show:

https://lnkd.in/eVqgt6fU

There is a lot of chatter and data flying around. Social media, in particular, is awash with angry voices, contradictory data and opposing claims on both sides of the debate.

𝘔𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 100 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘴𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘰𝘭𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦 ‘𝘥𝘶𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘝𝘈𝘛 𝘰𝘯 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘴’”
(𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘱𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘵, 4 𝘑𝘢𝘯𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘺 2026)

I was struck by a comment last year from Mark Taylor, of the ISC, who described the “triple whammy” facing schools:
• VAT on fees
• changes to business rates
• rises in employer National Insurance contributions,
all hitting at once.

A more recent analysis in School Management Plus states that the number of closures is in line with previous years. The article is helpful in explaining its data-gathering methodology and constraints, and it looks at the types of schools that have closed (though it does not provide comparative analysis by school type).

Unsurprisingly, the reality is complex, not black and white.

In isolation, quoting headline numbers of school closures, and assuming they are all due to VAT, is not especially helpful.

What’s needed is better data and more careful analysis before conclusions are reached and judgements made.

For example:
• How many pupils and teachers from these closed schools have been negatively impacted?
• What types of schools are closing — and what types are opening (e.g. SEND schools)?
• How has the data been compiled?
• How have mergers and acquisitions been accounted for?

These questions remain unanswered, but look out for the results of our recent poll of AFIS parent members, asking what the impact of VAT has been on them. 

The debate goes on……..

*NB: Our question is firmly apolitical on VAT. We are simply asking whether the evidence cited supports the claims being made.